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I know it’s basically impossible to handicap the timeline on federal legalization, but given you must be asked for such insight constantly, what’s your current answer?
I’m not a pundit — I’m an advocate. I don’t have a crystal ball. But given the entrenched dynamics right now, I don’t see an ability to count to 60 and who knows what the political landscape is going to be come November. That said, I don’t see the calculus changing ahead of the election, so depending on a myriad of factors — including inflation, Ukraine, Biden’s approval, COVID, and who knows what else — the goal here is to inject marijuana into that list of considerations.
Looking at the Senate map, right now, it is entirely possible that come January 3, we could see anything ranging from a 52-48 Republican-controlled Senate to a 52-48 Democratic-controlled Senate.
I’m looking at Pennsylvania, with the retirement of Senator Toomey; I’m looking at other retirements happening in North Carolina and Ohio; those are all democratic pickup opportunities. It’s also possible we’ll see dedicated prohibitionists like Chuck Grassley in Iowa or Ron Johnson in Wisconsin defeated. Louisiana is a big question mark. I’m very curious to see how Gary Chambers is going to play there. If we see an explosion in Black turnout, I think he very well may be a leader to inspire people to turn out in the midterms.
It’s tough trying to metagame out what the next session of Congress is going to look like. It’s very difficult to do, at this point. Certainly, hypothetically, if we do see continued Democratic control, and possibly the defeat of a [Ron Johnson] or someone, which can then be attributed, at least in part, to cannabis reform efforts, that would help to change the narrative. I suspect that would also embolden the five Republican senators who I believe would consider voting for descheduling, right now, to come out publicly about that, and to convince some of their colleagues to join them.
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Bigger picture, if you’ll indulge another sports metaphor here, it feels like we’re running down the football field and we keep on thinking that we’re picking up speed, but then it turns out that the field is just riddled with big holes that have been covered up with sticks and leaves. As a result, we keep falling down and then we have to climb back up and try to get our steam going again.
When we’re talking about comprehensive reform, marijuana policy and prohibition touches nearly every aspect of public policy, from product regulation to workers’ protections and rights to the FDA and how we appropriately reckon with the fact that the cannabis reform movement has simultaneously billed this substance as a therapeutic medicine and as a recreational substance. That is an incredibly difficult road to navigate and almost everybody is going to be unhappy with the compromise.
Take an issue like interstate trade. Right now, there’s this civil war happening within the industry. A lot of marijuana companies would rather not see federal reform [arrive] if it means including interstate trade because their entire business plan is predicated on states with hyper restrictive licensing having closed markets. They don’t want more affordable cannabis coming in from Oregon or Oklahoma and hitting dispensary shelves and that is deeply troubling to me.
We are now seeing these canna-capitalists prioritizing their bottom line over the fundamental rights and freedom of their would-be consumers. Last year, in some state legislatures, cannabis companies started lobbying against legalization bills because they would expand licensing. We saw this in Virginia with the effort to establish, essentially, a three-company monopoly in their soon-to-be licensed adult use market.
These are very challenging questions and I think many, many people in the movement believe that we are closer to reform than we are. In the grand scheme of things, given this has been going on for coming up on 85 years, yes, we are very close to the finish line, if that’s your timeline.
But there are a lot of people who just got hip to the idea of legalization in the last few years and they’re like, ‘Why is this taking so long?’ If you knew your history a bit, you would have a deeper appreciation for how hard it was to get to where we are now, for you to even be able to not be laughed at when you say, ‘Why is this taking so long?’